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2020/11/02

The uncertainty of the election has been priced in?

Stocks: 76%

Cash: 24%

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Today:

S&P 500 ($SPY): +1.23%

DOW J ($DIA): +1.60%

NASDAQ ($NSDQ100): +0.20% (to 3:59 am, EST)

My portfolio: +0.42%

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Although eToro was not working during the first 30 mins of the open market, I still beat NASDAQ today by several successful day trades. As the election is coming, it’s really hard to clarify the market trend. However, we need to pay attention that VIX (fear index) has dropped around 10% from its previous peak on Oct 29, which is a little bit unusual because the election even hasn’t started. Therefore, it is reasonable to predict that the market has priced in the uncertainty of the election, turning out that the market seems not to be influenced by election in these two days.

I currently have 76% stocks and 24% cash. If the market keeps performing well, I will take partial profit first and adjust my strategies after the election.

 

 

11/2

選舉的不確定性已被納入股價中?

股票: 76%

現金: 24%

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今日:

標普500 ($SPY): +1.23%

道瓊 ($DIA): +1.60%

那斯達克 ($NSDQ100): +0.20% (至美東時間3:59 am)

我的投資組合: +0.42%

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由於一些成功的短線交易,雖然eToro在開盤後的前半小時大當機,我還是在今日擊敗那斯達克。當選舉日越來越靠近,我們也越來越難看清市場走勢;然而,VIX(恐慌指數)已從10/29的高點下跌將近10%。由於選舉根本還沒開始,仍有許多不確定因素,所以VIX的下跌看起來並不太尋常,但換個角度想,也許股市早已把選舉的不確定性納入股價中,因此這兩天的走勢看起來並未受到選舉影響。

目前我擁有76%股票及24%現金,如果市場持續表現良好,我將部分止盈,等待大選結果,並視結果調整交易策略。

 

 

 

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